Op-Ed Forecast


Economic Forecasts

 

 

 

 

 

 

By Peter Morici — professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.

 

Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of April 16
April 17
Retail Sales – March       0.4%       -0.1       0.4
Retail Sales, ex Autos       0.3%       0.2       0.2
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas       0.5%       0.3       0.5
NY Fed Manufacturing Index       18.3       22.5       18.2
NAHB Index – April       71       70       70
Business Inventories – February       0.6%       0.6       0.6
April 17
Housing Starts – March       1.270M       1.236       1260
Building Permits       1.310       1.298
Industrial Production – March       0.3%       0.9       0.4
Capacity Utilization       77.9       77.7       78.0
Manufacturing       0.3       1.2       0.2
April 19
Initial Unemployment Claims       230K       233       230
Philadelphia Fed Survey       20.1       22.3       20.1
Leading Indicators – March       0.3%       0.6       0.2
Week of April 23
April 23
Chicago Fed National Activity Index – March       0.5       0.88
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index       55.6       55.6
PMI Services Flash Index       54       54.0
Existing Home Sales – March       5.526M       5.540M
April 24
S&P Case/Shiller Index – February
Twenty City M/M       0.2%       0.3
Twenty City M/M – SA       0.7       0.8
Twenty City Y/Y       6.2       6.4
FHFA Housing Price Index – February       0.4%       0.8
New Home Sales – March       630K       618
Consumer Confidence       127.0       127.7
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey       20       15
April 26
Initial Jobless Claims
Durable Goods Orders – March       0.0%       3.0
International Trade in Goods – March       -$75.4B       -75.4
Wholesale Inventories (a)
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index       17
April 27
GDP – Q1 (a)       2.4%       2.7
GDP Implicit Price Deflator       2.3
Employment Cost Index – Q2       0.6%       0.6
Employment Cost Index – Y/Y       2.6       2.6
Chicago PMI – April       57.8       57.4
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – April (r)       98.0       97.8

 

Seattle business consultant Terry Corbell provides high-performance management services and strategies.