Op-Ed Forecast


U.S. Economic Forecasts

 

Forecasts by Peter Morici — professor emeritus at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and seven-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award in competition with 41 other top economists. (See his economic analysis.)

 

Forecast

      Prior Observation  

Consensus

Week of February 18
February 19
NAHB Index – February     59         58        5.9
JOLTS
February 21
Initial Unemployment Claims     235K         239        228
Retail Sales – January     0.3%         -1.2        0.2
Retail Sales, ex Autos     0.7         -1.8        0.1
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas     1.1         -1.4
Philadelphia Fed Survey     14.0         17.0        14.0
Durable Goods Orders – December     2.5%         0.7        1.8
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index     54.300         54.9        54.7
PMI Services Flash Index     54.5         54.2        54.3
Existing Home Sales – January     5.070M         4.990        5.0
Leading Indicators – January     0.1%         -0.1        0.1

 

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