Op-Ed Forecast


Economic Forecasts

 

 

 

 

 

 

By Peter Morici — professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.

Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of May 14
May 15
Retail Sales – April       0.5%       0.6       0.3
Retail Sales, ex Autos       0.6       0.2       0.5
Retail Sales,ex autos and gas       0.5       0.3
NY Fed Manufacturing Index       17.0       15.8       15.5
Business Inventories – March       0.3%       0.6       0.3
NAHB Index – May       70       69       70
May 16
Housing Starts – April       1.300M       1.319       1.325
Building Permits       1.335       1.355       1.350
Industrial Production – April       0.4%       0.5       0.6
Capacity Utilization       78.3       78.0       78.4
Manufacturing       0.4       0.1       0.6
May 17
Initial Unemployment Claims       215K       211       217
Philadelphia Fed Survey       22.2       23.2       22.0
Leading Indicators       0.3%       0.3       0.3
Week of May 21
May 21
Chicago Fed National Activity Index – April       0.40       0.10  
 
May 22  
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey       6       -3  
 
May 23  
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index       56.7       56.5  
PMI Services Flash – April       55.4       54.6  
 
New Home Sales – April       670K       694  
 
May 24  
FHFA Housing Price Index – March       0.6%       0.6  
Existing Home Sales – April       5.610M       5.600  
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index       20       26  
 
May 25  
Durable Goods Sales – April       -1.0%       2.6  
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – May (r)       98.8       98.8  

 

 

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