Op-Ed Forecast


U.S. Economic Forecasts

 

Forecasts by Peter Morici — professor emeritus at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and seven-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award in competition with 41 other top economists. (See his economic analysis.)

 

Forecast

       Prior Observation  

Consensus

Week of December 10
December 10 
JOLTS-October     6.900M        7.009       7.000
December 11
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index -November     107.0        107.4       107.0
Producer Price Index – November     0.1%        0.6       0.0
PPI less food, energy and trade services     0.2%        0.2       0.2
December 12
Consumer Price Index – November     0.1%        0.3       0.0
Core CPI     0.2        0.2       0.2
Treasury Budget – November     -$185.0B        -100.5       -165.0
December 13
Initial Unemployment Claims     227K        231       238
Export Prices – November     -0.3%        0.4       0.1
Import Prices     -1.7        0.5       -0.7
December 14
Retail Sales – November     0.2%        0.8       0.1
Retail Sales, ex Autos     0.3        0.7       0.2
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas     0.5        0.3       0.4
Industrial Production – November     0.3%        0.3       0.3
Capacity Utilization     78.5        78.5       78.5
Manufacturing     0.3        0.3       0.3
Business Inventories – October     0.6%        0.3       0.5
Week of December 17
December 17
NY Fed Manufacturing Index     21.0        23.3       21.25
NAHB Index     62        60       60
December 18
Housing Starts – November     1.218M        1.228       1.231
Building Permits     1.265        1.265       1.265
December 19
Current Account – Q3     -$123.2B        -101.5       -122.2
Existing Home Sales – November     5.150M        5.220       5.20
FMOC     2.375%        2.215
December 20
Initial Unemployment Claims
Philadelphia Fed Survey     15.0        12.9       11.9
Leading Indicators – November     0.1%        0.1       0.1
December 21
Durable Goods Orders – November     1.5%        -4.3       1.4
GDP – Q3 (f)     3.5%        3.5       3.5
GDP Implicit Price Deflator     1.7        1.7
Personal Income – November     0.3%        0.5       0.4
Personal Spending     0.3        0.6       0.3
Michigan Consumer Sentiment – December (r)     97.5        97.5       97.0

 

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