Op-Ed Forecast


U.S. Economic Forecasts

 

Forecasts by Peter Morici — professor emeritus at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and seven-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award in competition with 41 other top economists. (See his economic analysis.)

 

Forecast

       Prior Observation  

Consensus

Week of October 22
October 22
Chicago Fed National Activity Index     0.18         0.18        0.18
October 23
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index     24         29        24
October 24
FHFA House Price Index – August     0.3%         0.2        0.3
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index     55.3         55.6        55.5
PMI Services Flash Index     53.1         53.5        54.0
New Home Sales – September     620K         629        625
October 25
Initial Unemployment Claims     210K         210        212
Durable Goods Sales – September     -2.0%         4.4        -1.4
International Trade in Goods – September     -74.2         -75.8        -74.4
Wholesale Inventories – September (a)     0.3%         1.0        0.4
Pending Home Sale Index – September     103.5         104.2        104.2
October 26
GDP – Q3 (a)     3.2%         4.2        3.3
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – October (r)     99.0         99.0        99.0
Week of October 29
October 30
Personal Income – September     0.3%         0.3
Personal Spending     0.4         0.3
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index     28.1         28.1
October 30
S&P Case/Shiller Index – August
Twenty City M/M     0.4%         0.3
Twenty City M/M – SA     0.0         0.1
Consumer Confidence     136.5         138.4
October 31
ADP Employment Report – October     195K         230.0
Employment Cost Index – Q3     0.8%         0.6
Employment Cost Index – Y/Y     2.8         2.8
Chicago PMI     60.4         60.4
November 1
Auto Sales* – September     17.2M         17.4
Car Sales     5.2         5.2
Truck Sales     12.0         12.2
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
Productivity – Q3 (p)     1.9%         2.9
Unit Labor Costs     1.6         -1.0
PMI Manufacturing Index – October
ISM (Mfg) – October     59.4         59.8
Construction Spending – September     0.5%         0.1
November 2
Nonfarm Payrolls – October     200K         134
Private     195         121
Manufacturing     22         18
Unemployment     3.7%         3.7
Average Workweek     34.5HR         34.5
Average Hourly Earnings     0.2%         0.3
International Trade – September     -$51.4B         -53.2
Factory Orders – September     -0.9%         2.3
Durable Goods Orders     -2.0
Nondurable Goods Orders     0.2         0.2

 

Seattle business consultant Terry Corbell provides high-performance management services and strategies.