Economic Forecasts


Op-Ed

MoriciPeter

    By Peter Morici, Ph.D.

 

Updated Dec. 10, 2016 –

Here are my revised forecasts for quarterly GDP and economic releases for the weeks of Dec. 5 and Dec. 12:

 
Quarterly Forecasts (percent)
Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP: Annual 3.2 2.1 1.8 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.6 1.6 2.3 2.3
GDP: Q4/Q4 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.3
CPI: Year/Year 1.1 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.2 0.1 1.3 2.3 2.2
Core CPI: Y/Y 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.9
Unemployment Rate 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.6
Fed Funds: End Qtr 0.375 0.625 0.625 0.875 0.875 0.375 0.625 1.125 1.625

 

Releases the Weeks of December 12 – 19           Forecast Prior Observation  Consensus
Week of December 12
December 12
Treasury Budget – November -$125.0B -44.2 -135.0
December 13
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index -November 96.5 94.9 96.5
Export Prices – November -0.2% 0.2 0.0
Import Prices -0.4 0.5 -0.4
December 14
Producer Price Index – November 0.1% 0.0 0.2
Retail Sales – November 0.5% 0.8 0.4
Retail Sales, ex Autos 0.4 0.8 0.3
Industrial Production – November -0.1% 0.0 -0.2
Manufacturing -0.1 0.2 -0.1
Capacity Utilization 75.1 75.3 75.0
Business Inventories – October -0.1% 0.1 0.0
FMOC 0.625% 0.325 0.625
December 15
Consumer Price Index – November 0.1% 0.4 0.2
Core CPI 0.2 0.1 0.2
Initial Unemployment Claims 250K 258 255
Philadelphia Fed Survey 9.5 7.8 10.0
NY Fed Manufacturing Index 3.0 1.5 3.0
Current Account – Q3 -$112.0B -119.9 -111.6
NAHB Index 63 63 63.00
December 16
Housing Starts – November 1.125M 1.323 1.230
Building Permits 1.130 1.229 1.240
Week of December 19
December 19
PMI Services Flash Index 54.0 54.6
December 21
Existing Home Sales – November 5.500M 5.6 5.570
December 22
Durable Goods Orders – November -3.3% 4.6 -3.1
GDP – Q3 (f) 3.3% 3.2 3.3
GDP Implicit Price Deflator 1.4 1.4
Personal Income – November 0.3% 0.6 0.3
Personal Spending 0.5 0.3 0.4
Chicago Fed National Activity Index – November 54.2 57.6
FHFA Housing Price Index – Oct 0.5% 0.6
Leading Indicators – November 0.2 0.1
December 23
New Home Sales – November 580K 563 570
Michigan Consumer Sentiment – December (r) 98.0 98.0

 

Editor’s note: Peter Morici is an economist and business professor at the University of Maryland, former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award. (See his economic analysis.)


Seattle business consultant Terry Corbell provides high-performance management services and strategies.