U.S. Economic Forecast
Soon-to-be Published Economic Data
May 5, 2012 – by Dr. Peter Morici
|
Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus | ||
| Week of May 7 | ||||
| May 7 | ||||
| Consumer Credit – March |
$9.5B |
12.0 |
9.8 |
|
| May 9 | ||||
| Wholesale Inventories – March |
0.6% |
0.9 |
0.6 |
|
| Wholesale Sales |
0.8 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
|
| May 10 | ||||
| Initial Unemployment Claims |
375 |
365 |
366 |
|
| International Trade – March |
-$50.0B |
-46.0 |
-49.5 |
|
| Export Prices – April |
0.2% |
0.8 |
0.2 |
|
| Import Prices |
-0.1 |
1.3 |
-0.2 |
|
| Treasury Budget – April |
$35B |
-198.2 |
30.0 |
|
| May 11 | ||||
| Producer Price Index – April |
0.0% |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
| PPI Core |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
| Energy | ||||
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment – May (p) |
76.0 |
76.4 |
76.4 |
|
| Week of May 14 | ||||
| May 15 | ||||
| Consumer Price Index – April |
0.0% |
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
| Core CPI |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
| Energy | ||||
| Retail Sales – April |
0.3% |
0.8 |
0.3 |
|
| Retail Sales, ex Autos |
0.2 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
|
| Retail Sales, Autos |
0.9 |
|||
| NY Fed Manufacturing Index – May |
9.8 |
6.6 |
8.0 |
|
| Business Inventories – March |
0.5% |
0.6 |
0.5 |
|
| NAHB Index – May |
26 |
25 |
||
| May 16 | ||||
| Housing Starts – April |
.675M |
0.654 |
.670 |
|
| Building Permits |
.735 |
0.747 |
.725 |
|
| Industrial Production – April |
0.5% |
0.0 |
0.4 |
|
| Capacity Utilization |
79.0 |
78.6 |
78.8 |
|
| May 17 | ||||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | ||||
| Philadelphia Fed Survey |
12 |
8.5 |
10.0 |
|
| Leading Indicators |
-0.1% |
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
| Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission. | ||||
April 30, 2012 – by Dr. Peter Morici
|
Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus | ||
| Week of April 30 | ||||
| April 30 | ||||
| Personal Income – March |
0.3% |
0.2 |
0.3 |
|
| Personal Spending |
0.4 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
|
| PCE Price Index |
0.3 |
0.3 |
||
| Core PCE Price Index |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
| Real Personal Spending |
0.1 |
0.5 |
||
| Chicago PMI – April |
61.0 |
62.2 |
61.0 |
|
| May 1 | ||||
| Auto Sales* – April |
14.44M |
14.37 |
14.40 |
|
| Car Sales |
7.74 |
7.64 |
||
| Truck Sales |
6.70 |
6.73 |
||
| *SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence | ||||
| ISM (Mfg) – April |
52.4 |
53.4 |
53.0 |
|
| ISM Prices |
58.5 |
61.0 |
59.0 |
|
| Construction Spending – March |
0.5% |
-1.1 |
0.5 |
|
| May 2 | ||||
| ADP Employment Report – April |
180K |
209 |
179 |
|
| Factory Orders – March |
-1.5% |
1.3 |
-1.5 |
|
| Durable Goods Orders |
-4.2 |
2.4 |
||
| Nondurable Goods Orders |
0.8 |
0.4 |
||
| May 3 | ||||
| Initial Unemployment Claims |
380K |
388 |
380 |
|
| Productivity – Q1 (p) |
-0.3% |
0.9 |
-0.5 |
|
| Unit Labor Costs |
2.6 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
|
| ISM Services – April |
55.0 |
56.0 |
55.5 |
|
| ISM Prices |
62.0 |
63.9 |
||
| ISM Business Activity |
57.9 |
58.9 |
57.9 |
|
| May 4 | ||||
| Nonfarm Payrolls – April |
175K |
120 |
170 |
|
| Private |
180 |
121 |
175 |
|
| Core Private* |
135 |
102 |
||
| Manufacturing |
5 |
37 |
22 |
|
| Unemployment |
8.2% |
8.2 |
8.2 |
|
| Average Workweek |
33.8Hr |
33.8 |
33.8 |
|
| Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
| *Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services | ||||
| Week of May 7 | ||||
| May 7 | ||||
| Consumer Credit – March |
$9.0B |
12.0 |
10.0 |
|
| May 9 | ||||
| Wholesale Inventories – March |
0.6% |
0.9 |
0.7 |
|
| Wholesale Sales |
0.8 |
1.2 |
||
| May 10 | ||||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | ||||
| International Trade – March |
-$50.0B |
-46.0 |
-48.5 |
|
| Export Prices – April |
0.2 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
|
| Import Prices |
-0.1 |
1.3 |
-0.1 |
|
| Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum |
0.3 |
|||
| Treasury Budget – April |
$35B |
-198.2 |
||
| May 11 | ||||
| Producer Price Index – April |
0.4% |
0.0 |
||
| PPI Core |
0.2 |
0.3 |
||
| Energy | ||||
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment – May (p) |
76.4 |
76.4 |
||
| Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission. | ||||
April 21, 2012 - by Dr. Peter Morici
|
Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus | ||
| Week of April 23 | ||||
| April 24 | ||||
| S&P Case/Shiller Index – February | ||||
| Ten City M/M |
-1.1% |
-0.8 |
||
| Ten City Y/Y |
-3.7 |
-3.9 |
-0.8 |
|
| Twenty City M/M |
-1.1 |
-0.8 |
0.2 |
|
| Twenty City M/M – SA |
-0.2 |
0.0 |
-3.6 |
|
| Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q – SA |
-3.7 |
-3.8 |
||
| New Home Sales – March |
310K |
313 |
320 |
|
| Consumer Confidence – April |
70.2 |
70.2 |
||
| April 25 | ||||
| Durable Goods Sales – March |
0.5% |
2.4 |
-1.5 |
|
| FMOC |
0.125 |
0.1 |
.125 |
|
| April 26 | ||||
| Initial Unemployment Claims |
380 |
386 |
375 |
|
| Pending Home Sales Index – March |
95.0 |
96.5 |
97.5 |
|
| April 27 | ||||
| GDP – Q1 (a) |
2.2% |
3.0 |
2.3 |
|
| GDP Implicit Price Deflator |
2.0 |
0.8 |
2.0 |
|
| Employment Cost Index – Q4 |
0.6% |
0.4 |
||
| Employment Cost Index – Y/Y |
2.0 |
2.0 |
||
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment (f) |
74.7 |
75.7 |
75.7 |
|
| Week of April 30 | ||||
| April 30 | ||||
| Personal Income – March |
0.3% |
0.2 |
0.3 |
|
| Personal Spending |
0.4 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
|
| Chicago PMI – April |
61.5 |
62.2 |
62.0 |
|
| May 1 | ||||
| Auto Sales* – April |
14.57M |
14.37 |
14.50 |
|
| Car Sales |
7.84 |
7.64 |
||
| Truck Sales |
6.73 |
6.73 |
||
| *SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence | ||||
| ISM (Mfg) – April |
52.4 |
53.4 |
53.5 |
|
| ISM Prices |
58.5 |
61.0 |
60.0 |
|
| Construction Spending – March |
0.5% |
-1.1 |
0.5 |
|
| May 2 | ||||
| ADP Employment Report – April |
190K |
209 |
190 |
|
| Factory Orders – March |
0.7% |
1.3 |
0.4 |
|
| Durable Goods Orders |
0.5 |
2.4 |
||
| Nondurable Goods Orders |
0.8 |
0.4 |
||
| May 3 | ||||
| Productivity – Q1 (p) |
0.0% |
0.9 |
0.0 |
|
| Unit Labor Costs |
2.5 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
|
| ISM Services – April |
55.0 |
56.0 |
55.9 |
|
| ISM Prices |
62.0 |
63.9 |
||
| ISM Business Activity |
58.9 |
56.9 |
||
| May 4 | ||||
| Nonfarm Payrolls – April |
175K |
120 |
175 |
|
| Private |
180 |
121 |
180 |
|
| Core Private* |
135 |
102 |
29 |
|
| Manufacturing |
5 |
37 |
29 |
|
| Unemployment |
8.2% |
8.2 |
8.2 |
|
| Average Workweek |
33.8Hr |
33.8 |
34,5 |
|
| Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
| *Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services | ||||
| Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission. | ||||
