Economic Forecasts


 

Forecasts for the Weeks of Sept. 25 and Oct. 2, 2017

 

By Peter Morici, Ph.D.

 

      Forecast Prior Observation  Consensus
Week of September 25
September 25
Chicago Fed National Manufacturing Index – August 0.13 -0.01 0.11
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 13.0 16.8 12.0
September 26
S&P Case/Shiller Index – July
Twenty City M/M 0.7% 0.7
Twenty City M/M – SA 0.2 0.1 0.4
Twenty City Y/Y 5.8 5.7 5.9
Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q – SA
New Home Sales – August 555K 571 583
Consumer Confidence – September 121.9 122.9 122.9
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 14 14 13
September 27
Durable Goods Sales – August 1.5% -6.8 1.5
Pending Home Sale Index – Aug 108.8 109.1 109.3
September 28
Initial Unemployment Claims 265K 259 270
GDP – Q2 3.0% 3.0 3.1
GDP Implicit Price Deflator 1.0 1.0 1.0
International Trade in Goods – August $65.1B 65.1 65.7
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index 10 10
September 29
Personal Income – August 0.3% 0.4 0.3
Personal Spending 0.1 0.3 0.1
Chicago PMI – September 58.4 58.9 58.6
Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Sept (r) 95.3 95.3 95.3
Week of October 2
October 2
ISM (Mfg) – Sept 57.0 58.8
Construction Spending – August -0.1% -0.6
October 3
Auto Sales* – September 16.3K 16.1
Car Sales 6.1 6.0
Truck Sales 10.3 10.1
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
October 4
ADP Employment Report – September 100K 237
ISM Services – September 55.6 55.3
October 5
International Trade – August -$44.0B -43.7
Factory Orders – August 0.9% -3.3
Durable Goods Orders 1.5 -6.8
Nondurable Goods Orders 0.3 0.4
October 6
Nonfarm Payrolls – September 110K 156
Private 100 165
Manufacturing -10 36
Unemployment 4.4% 4.4
Average Workweek 34.4HR 34.4
Average Hourly Earnings 0.2% 0.1
*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services
Wholesale Inventories – August 0.3% 0.6
Consumer Credit – August $18.0B 18.5

 

 

Editor’s Note: Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award. See his economic analysis here.

 

Seattle business consultant Terry Corbell provides high-performance management services and strategies.