July 17, 2010
A new Rasmussen poll indicates a three-time incumbent senator might be in trouble. Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) continues to slide in popularity. A two-time unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate, Dino Rossi; and a former National Football League star turned-farmer, Clint Didier, now hold narrow leads in the Senate race.
“Incumbents that fall short of 50 percent at this stage of a campaign are considered potentially vulnerable, but worrisome for Murray is that this is her poorest showing of the year,” according to an article at Rasmussen. “She was reelected to a third term in 2004 with 55 percent of the vote.”
Mr. Rossi and Mr. Didier both have 48 percent of the responding voter preferences against Ms. Murray and her 45 percent. Fewer than 10 percent are undecided or indicate a preference for other candidates.
The poll was conducted with likely voters.
“Washington’s Senate race looks increasingly like a referendum on incumbent Democrat Patty Murray with two Republican candidates edging past her this month,” according to the article.
Rasmussen reports Ms. Murray and Mr. Rossi have been tied in every poll in 2010.
“Incumbents that fall short of 50 percent at this stage of a campaign are considered potentially vulnerable, but worrisome for Murray is that this is her poorest showing of the year,” “She was reelected to a third term in 2004 with 55 percent of the vote.”
The Washington state race is a toss-up – one of nine according to Rasmussen Reports’ Senate Balance of Power rankings.
But in Washington state, the biggest decline for Ms. Murray occurs in a matchup with Mr. Didier.
“Last month, Murray led Didier, a former professional football player, 48 percent to 40 percent,” states Rasmussen. “Prior to that survey, Didier’s support had ranged from 30 percent to 37 percent since January. In the same time period, Murray earned 47 percent to 51 percent in match-ups with Didier.”
A third Republican candidate is also faring better against Ms. Murray.
“… businessman Paul Akers, continues to trail Murray. But in the latest survey, the incumbent leads Akers 46 percent to 41 percent, while a month ago she was ahead 48 percent to 38 percent,” states Rasmussen.
In every matchup, Republicans are favored by men and Democrats get support from most women.
Among Independent voters, Mr. Rossi has a slightly more than two-to-one edge, and Mr. Didier performs almost as well. Mr. Akers is also ahead but not as much as either Mr. Rossi or Mr. Didier.
“Just seven percent of Washington voters now rate the economy as good or excellent, while nearly half (49 percent) say it’s poor,” reports Rasmussen. “Thirty percent think the economy is getting better, but 45 percent say it’s getting worse.”
The poll indicates 72 percent believe the U.S. is in a recession.
“Support for last year’s $787-billion economic stimulus plan which Murray supported is higher in Washington than it is nationally with voters in the state closely divided over whether it helped or hurt the economy,” states Rasmussen. “But even in Washington, only 30 percent think the increased spending in the stimulus plan created new jobs, while 52 percent disagree and say it did not create any new jobs.
As far as job creation is concerned, responding voters – by 58 percent to 25 percent – prefer cutting taxes vis-à-vis more government spending.
“Fifty-four percent of Washington voters favor repeal of the national health care bill, which Murray supported, while 44 percent oppose repeal,” according to the pollster. “This is in line with voter sentiments nationally and includes 43 percent who Strongly Favor repeal and 37 percent who are Strongly Opposed.”
The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus four percent.
From the Coach’s Corner, my sense is that factors for the changes reflected in this Rasmussen poll include voter unrest over new taxes and violation of transparency standards by the Washington State Legislature. See: Tax Increases Will Cost Washington Businesses, Consumers $6.7 Billion Next 10 Years.