Washington Think Tank Says Reliance on Sin Taxes Won’t Work
Jan. 29, 2010
Washington Policy Center (WPC) concludes Washington state lawmakers, who are struggling to solve a $2.6 billion deficit, will not sustain a balanced budget by relying on sin taxes.
WPC, www.washingtonpolicy.org, draws these conclusions:
- Sin tax increases are not a viable long-term budget solution.
- Other states have failed to solve long-term issues with sin taxes.
- Washington netted $2.5 million less in tobacco tax revenue than anticipated in this decade.
- Society’s problems are not alleviated and taxes on sin products encourage black market smuggling.
The conclusions are contained a paper authored by WPC’s Paul Guppy, vice president for research, and Betsy Hansen, a research assistant.
In considering sin-tax increases, lawmakers ostensibly have two motivations: They want revenue and they desire to change consumer behavior. That includes drinking, smoking, and overeating.
The authors state a past tobacco tax increase yielded $2.5 million less than anticipated because cigarette sales have decreased 1-2 percent a year. That’s after the state established the third-highest cigarette tax in the nation. Smokers have been buying their cigarettes from Indian smoke shops or from out-of-state.
Lawmakers in other states have been unsuccessful after raising sin taxes, according to the study:
“Ten states increased cigarette taxes: Arkansas (new rate of $1.15), Florida ($1.34), Hawaii ($2.60), Kentucky($0.60), Mississippi ($0.68), New Jersey ($2.70), New Hampshire ($1.78), Rhode Island ($3.46), Vermont ($2.24) and Wisconsin ($2.52). New York and New Jersey hiked taxes on alcoholic beverages.”
The Tax Foundation found that in most cases, state lawmakers’ plans failed to achieve either of the goals advanced to justify excise tax increases. The tax increases did not significantly change peoples’ behavior, and they failed to generate the new revenues their sponsors predicted.
The shortfall in expected revenue, combined with chronic overspending, contributes to unsustainable budgets and contributes to an ongoing sense of crisis in state finances.”
WPC points out that a new federal law was enacted in Feb. 2009. It raised the price per carton by $6.16. The goal is to fund the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) for four million kids.
However, the results have opposite of what was expected, according to the study:
“Public revenues, businesses and consumers are affected at both the state and local levels. As the federal increase affects the retail price of tobacco products and consumption shifts, states with already high cigarette taxes collect less revenue for themselves.
Businesses experienced a fall in demand for their goods and smokers feel policymakers are unfairly punishing them for engaging in politically unpopularbehavior.”
The revenue shortfall for fiscal year will total $2.3 billion.
WPC believes Washington state coffers are expected to suffer, as well:
“Combined with a high federal levy, Washington state’s high cigarette tax creates a strong incentive for consumers to engage in systematic tax avoidance, through increased internet purchases, out-of-state trading, and black market sales. For example, Washington’s state cigarette tax is nearly 20 percent higher than Idaho’s state tax, and more than 70 percent higher than Oregon’s state tax.”
Let’s hope for government reform so that lawmakers aren’t tempted to scurry around for superficial means to balance the budget. At stake are economic and political liberty.
From the Coach’s Corner, for common-sense efficiencies in Washington state, here are other recent columns:
Government’s Reliance on Huge Tax Increases Reaches Absurdity
Study: Tax Increases Threaten More Job Losses in Washington
Washington State Senators Claim Income Tax Is ‘Fiscal Reform’
Will Government Policies Ever Promote Economic And Political Liberty?
Do Washington’s Budget Woes Warrant Government Reform?
The Great Recession: Government Killing Business
Analysis: Steps for Economic Success in Washington State
Do Washington’s Budget Woes Warrant Government Reform?
Updated 1o:oo a.m. Tuesday December 15, 2009
“We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” – Albert Einstein
In applying the logic of the famed Nobel Prize winner to Washington state’s multi-billion dollar budget woes, it would appear government reform is needed for good government. Washington is mirroring California and its budget anguish. However, Gov. Chris Gregoire and state lawmakers say tax increases are necessary to deal with the red ink.
Not so fast say authoritative observers outside state government. Productive steps are necessary to solve the ever-deepening budget hole, which was $2.6 billion in the last forecast despite the massive temporary infusion of federal stimulus dollars.
“At this point, this is a whole new ballgame,” says Jason Mercier, who is the director of the Center for Government Reform at Washington Policy Center (WPC) in Olympia, WA. “Even before the recession, which followed a bubble and fake consumer spending, the spending was not sustainable – this is a reset of spending of what the economy can really bear.”
But Mr. Mercier warns us about a list of suggested tax increases by the Department of Revenue. The agency’s list suggests taxes on tax-exempt credit unions, business and occupation tax increases, and hikes on the so-called sin taxes. The Department of Revenue list was first unearthed by the savvy staff at Everett’s The Daily Herald.
“We need to evaluate services from government,” adds Mr. Mercier. “Increasing taxes during a recession would add economic hardship, while changing the way services are delivered offers part of the solution to closing the deficit without raising taxes.”
WPC’s Communications Director John Barnes issued a press release in April, 2009 stating 32 economists believe tax increases will not lead to recovery.
A Washington political economist also says he is not persuaded about the justification for tax increases.
“First of all, the Governor’s budget is not a serious proposal,” says Dr. Mathew Manweller, a professor of political science at Central Washington University in Ellensburg, WA. “It is what I call a ‘bluff budget.’ She wants a tax increase to cover state services.
“But to get there, she needs to propose draconian cuts to convince people to support a tax increase,” he adds. “In essence, this is a ‘give me your wallet or little Toto gets it’ budget.”
A favorite of businesspeople because he is succinct and accurate in his assessments, Dr. Manweller cites a myriad of reasons for the budget headaches.
“On one level we have very powerful state employees unions,” Dr. Manweller explains. “Their financial demands on the budget in terms of salaries, no-risk pension plans, double dipping, and comparable wage laws are killing us.”
Indeed, at an $83 million cost to taxpayers in 2010, here’s a disturbing headline: Thousands of state workers in line for substantial raises.
Mr. Mercier says another budget problem is the Legislature’s under-funding of public sector pensions.
“They are still skipping payments and must make mandatory pension payments in 2013,” he says. “Government has over promised what the economy can deliver.”
“Add to that an aggressive environmental lobby that essentially has the DOE and DNR in its back-pocket after the Goldmark election and Jay Manning tenure at DOE, it is difficult to encourage any private development,” the professor says. (He’s referring to Mr. Manning who formerly ran the Department of Ecology, and Peter Goldmark who is Commissioner of Public Lands and who also heads the Department of Natural Resources.)
“We also see a variety of federal mandates that are passed down to states that are passing them down to counties and cities,” adds Dr. Manweller. “More and more revenue is going to what economists call ‘dead weight loss’ or non-productive labor.
“Take those issues, throw in a national economy that is ailing, and you are going to get a struggling economy,” concludes Dr. Manweller.
Budget solutions
Mr. Mercier is among those who contend the budget can be balanced by also taking advantage of the state’s competitive contracting law that’s been virtually ignored since 2002.
“The Legislature and Gov. Locke authorized state agencies to open up public work traditionally held as an in-house government monopoly to competitive bids from the open market,” he points out. “Public employees are encouraged to participate in the bidding process, because the intent of the law is not to benefit private companies, but to secure the best service for the public no matter who does the work.”
The WPC conducted a study of 20 state agencies and guess what?
“In practice, however, state managers rarely exercise their statutory contracting out authority, meaning an important provision of the 2002 civil service law remains largely unused,” says Mr. Mercier.
This raises another question: Why is the state of Washington in the liquor business?
Two State Senators, Tim Sheldon (D-Potlatch) and Curtis King (R-Yakima) have introduced a bill to privatize Washington’s monopoly of 161 stores and 1,469 liquor employees.
Do you find this hard to believe? It’s true. Washington employs nearly 1,500 liquor employees when the private sector would function better. Furthermore, here is Washington’s 2009 personnel report.
As a management consultant who has worked experienced at least five recessions, I know it is not wise to try to tax our way out of a recession. All we have to do is consider the federal tax cuts of 2001 and 2003. They were instrumental for the ensuing economic upturn.
A professor of economics at Harvard University, N. Gregory Mankiw, drew similar conclusions about taxes and recessions in The New York Times in Dec. 2009, “Tax Cuts Might Accomplish What Spending Hasn’t.”
He mentioned a 2007 study by David H. Romer and Christina D. Romer at University of California at Berkeley. (Ms. Romer is now the Chairwoman of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Obama Administration.)
“Our estimates suggest that a tax increase of 1 percent of GDP reduces output over the next three years by nearly 3 percent,” wrote the study’s authors.
In conclusion, yes, Washington’s budget woes do warrant government reform. But Washington’s government simply demands more money. There’s increasing talk of tax hikes while countless state businesses and citizens are desperate and hurting.
The state has a spending problem, not a revenue problem.
This is a critical time – government reform is necessary. We need to heed the Einstein quote. At stake are economic and political liberty for Washington businesses and citizens.
From the Coach’s Corner, here is more reading on how to solve Washington budget woes: “Analysis: Steps for Economic Success in Washington State.”
Here are more resource links:
- WPC – http://www.washingtonpolicy.org
- Dr. Manweller – http://www.mattmanweller.com
Need a Job? The Recession and Offshoring Don’t Have to Be Obstacles
Updated June 2, 2010
All eyes are on Germany as the possible savior in the woes of the European Union’s recovery. Germany was the first to enjoy a growing gross domestic product. But Germany is eyeing budget cuts – billions of euros. Possible cuts include defense and higher sin taxes. The goal is savings totaling €10 billion or $12.22 billion.
Economists’ eyes are also on the U.S. GDP, a basic measure of the nation’s performance. But the U.S. recession will not be officially over until we get a definitive word from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Not to be negative, but you might recall the official determination about the current recession was late – not until December 2008. That was a full year after the bureau’s economists realized the recession originated 12 months earlier.
During those 12 months, many on Main Street were already reeling from the effects of the severe downturn. Profits were harder to achieve, especially for retailers. Advertising budgets were cut. Autos and trucks weren’t selling well as consumers became more tight-fisted with their money. The situation was exacerbated when big banks and credit card companies started cutting credit lines and imposing stiff fees in undesirable usury practices.
If you’re a boss planning your budget and workforce, it is certainly best to consider more than a macro-view of the economy. For an accurate snapshot, use discernment in the micro factors directly and indirectly affecting you. Listen closely to your customers.
That also means: Don’t be fooled about many companies exceeding earnings expectations on Wall Street during the recession.
Candidly, times are not necessarily good if those companies are merely cutting employee hours or laying-off workers and slashing costs to achieve profits. Profits created by stagnant wages adversely affect consumer confidence.
If you are a non-exempt employee – just like senior management – you should be aware of these issues. Higher profits do not equate with strong employment prospects, either. So, even if the GDP gets in the black, we still might not be in a true recovery.
What else should you do? Stay positive and passionately do your best to help your company make a dollar. And if your company lobbies government in the political arena, find why. It just might be to create an environment conducive to competitiveness.
Offshoring Job Losses
Many Americans have either been under-employed or jobless as the result of offshoring jobs, too. Just as automation replaced workers a few decades ago, look for innovation and productivity to increase as companies cut costs.
A study by The Conference Board and Duke University shows the number of offshoring U.S. companies dramatically increased from 2005 to 2008 – 22 percent to 50 percent. What’s more, 60 percent of such companies plan to increase their offshoring.
Business has complained for years about too few Americans having degrees in science and math. The lack of talent and innovations in speeding products to the marketplace are the catalysts for the increase in offshoring.
No matter how you are impacted by offshoring, you will want to read the comment by the report’s co-author on The Conference Board Web site, www.conference-board.org.
“Outsourcing innovation in engineering, research and development, product and software development, and knowledge processes makes companies, whatever their country of origin, more competitive by increasing speed to market and compensating for domestic talent gaps,” wrote Ton Heijmen.
The report also states the shortage of American talent has prompted many small companies to offshore jobs. And the talent is not limited to China or India – talent is being utilized in Brazil, Egypt, Sri Lanka and Russia.
Conversely, many economists say jobs are coming to the U.S. as a result of the offshoring phenomenon.
“That is, the world sends more service sector jobs to the US than the US sends to the world, where the jobs under discussion involve trade in services of computing (which includes computer software designs) and other business services (which include accounting and other back-office operations),” wrote Richard Baldwin, a professor of International Economics at the Graduate Institute, Geneva on www.voxeu.org.
VoxEU.org is a portal established by the Centre for Economic Policy Research, www.CEPR.org.
One of the reasons for offshoring is competitiveness – due to a lack of economic and political liberty – a condition imposed by the federal and state governments. (For Northwest readers, see: Analysis: Steps for Economic Success in Washington State.)
Consider this statement on the Web site of the nonpartisan Tax Foundation:
“Currently, the average combined federal and state corporate tax rate in the U.S. is 39.3 percent, second among OECD countries to Japan’s combined rate of 39.5 percent,” wrote Scott A. Hodge, president of the Tax Foundation, www.taxfoundation.org.
(Thirty countries belong to OCED, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, www.oecd.org. It was formed in 1960 for a “For a stronger, cleaner, fairer world economy.”)
Among his other conclusions, Mr. Hodge has a stunning assessment: “24 U.S. states have a combined corporate tax rate higher than top-ranked Japan.”
So here is the bottom-line: Undeniably, many Americans have suffered hardship as a result of the recession and offshoring. However, remember the U.S. will soon come out the recession and we are a vital part of an evolving dynamic global economy.
The best approach has always been the free-enterprise system. Embracing change is the only productive option for individuals to enjoy success.
The road to economic success will be easier if governments stop their heavy taxation. Instead, economic wisdom and best practices should be their goals.
Economic and political liberties are vital to the success of this nation – the effectiveness of economic policies depends on whether government has economic wisdom. That means allowing for economic and political liberties.
As I’ve written before: “Economic liberty is the freedom to make decisions in a free-enterprise system. Political liberty is possible when government stops its unproductive practices so entrepreneurs can have the necessary tools to create jobs and take full responsibility for their successes or failures.”
From the Coach’s Corner, if you are out of work or under-employed, it is time for an assessment of your strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Consider a career that offers more value to an employer or learn business-startup skills if you want to be the big boss.
For more insights on how to cope with offshoring of jobs, you might want to read the writings of Michael T. Robinson, the creator of www.careerplanner.com. I agree with his approach.
Visit: www.careerplanner.com/Career-Articles/Offshoring-Jobs.cfm.
If you decide to launch a business, don’t be surprised if you become more aware of the need for economic and political liberty.
If You Own a Small Business, What Songs Are You Singing?
To paraphrase a song sung by a Tony Award-winning star of stage and film musicals, Ethel Merman: “There’s no business like small business.” But it appears many small businesses have been singing the blues for years.
Data from Equifax indicates small-business bankruptcy filings are skyrocketing – they were up 81 percent at the halfway point of 2009 compared to June of 2008. It is estimated there are 25 million small businesses in America.
The most small-business bankruptcy filings were in regions of southern and northern California – the Los Angeles, Riverside/San Bernardino and Sacramento metropolitan areas.
Yes, it is true that the bankruptcy trend does not tell the whole story.
Some small businesses have been successful in getting outsourcing opportunities to sell to big firms. In looking for market share, many large companies are catering to small businesses with lower prices for goods and services.
And even though the stock market has been performing more like a raging bull since March, and a study shows small business confidence is hopeful for a turnaround by 2010, not every small-business owner is likely to be enthused.
A recent confidence survey by Administaff, www.administaff.com, showed 40 percent of responding businesses said they have been performing worse than they anticipated while 60 percent were content with their 2009 performance.
But small businesses appear to have reason to be concerned.
Published reports indicate the President Obama healthcare surtax would decrease the federal income tax base according to the nonpartisan, nonprofit Tax Foundation, www.taxfoundation.org. The organization is also quoted as predicting that 1.3 million small businesses would pay even more taxes under his plan.
Actually, healthcare reform and taxes have been issues for small business for as long as I can remember. That’s based on my experience as a business-coaching columnist, management consultant and two-year host of a radio program, which was sponsored and podcast statewide by the Association of Washington Business, www.awb.org.
Unfortunately, the concerns of small businesses in Washington state have long mirrored those throughout nation, for example, according to two different studies released in 2007.
Before the recession, economic confidence had declined among small business owners, according to Discover Small Business Watch. Some 32 percent believed business conditions in their industries were deteriorating while 40 percent complained of cash-flow problems.
The numbers were similar from the National Small Business Association, www.nsba.biz, as 43 percent of responding members said the economy was worse for them in 2007 than it was five years before in 2002.
Other financial concerns: Thirty-nine percent cited health benefits; 31 percent worried about available capital; 27 percent complained about state and local taxes; 25 percent feared federal taxes; and 23 percent mentioned a lack of qualified workers.
In 1995, 67 percent of surveyed companies offered health benefits, but now only 41 percent do so.
What issues did they want addressed in the presidential campaign between Senator John McCain and the eventual winner, President Obama? Thirty-one percent cited taxes while 30 percent said health care costs were the most important.
Overall, while 60 percent of surveyed companies invest in a Web site, a high percentage of small businesses didn’t have a Web presence. They included 57 percent of service companies; 39 percent of retailers; 33 percent of professional services; 67 percent of construction companies; and 32 percent of manufacturers.
Meantime, it appears a common denominator in small-business issues is government and whether it will continue to hinder business with economic policies. Note the concerns about taxes, and health care reform. Small businesses aren’t likely to become really confident until government stops hindering our free-market system and starts allowing economic and political liberties.
From the Coach’s Corner, you can influence your company’s future by focusing on people.
My research shows 53 percent of a customer’s buying motivation depends on people. What are the so-called soft skills of your spokespersons, customer service, finance and salespeople? Customers want value, good service and to be treated well.
And if you don’t have an effective Internet presence, get busy. And good luck!
Analysis: Steps for Economic Success in Washington State
July 29,2009
In assessing economic-development strategies, it’s shortsighted to merely look at the headlines. But you can tell a lot about the economy by taking a cursory look at the unemployment rate. Unfortunately, Washington ranks No. 34 in the nation – tied with Missouri at 9.3 percent.
How can government brighten the unemployment picture? The effectiveness of economic policies depends on government and whether it has economic wisdom. That means allowing for economic and political liberties.
Economic liberty is the freedom to make decisions in a free-enterprise system. Political liberty is possible when government stops its unproductive practices so entrepreneurs can have the necessary tools to create jobs and take full responsibility for their successes or failures.
Here are economic strategies for government to consider:
Discernment of Main Street’s issues. Listen to business. This column warned about economic conditions long before the recession was recognized. My confidential discussions with businesses revealed an undercurrent of pending economic chaos long before the recession was publicly acknowledged.
Encourage consensus building among stakeholders, including business and unions. Adversarial relationships and chest-beating fail to create and maintain jobs. Better communication among stakeholders is paramount. Management must listen to workers, and develop quality plans and implement them. Unions need to understand how business works. In other words, choose to disagree but focus on principles, not personalities.
Prioritize government services. You might recall the inspiring headlines when Gov. Gary Locke implemented Priorities of Government budgeting. The goals were fiscal responsibility while providing quality services. But when was the last time we enjoyed such headlines? To most businesspeople, government is not concerned with performance, but is seen as focused on imposing financial barriers and justifying costs.
Develop budgets that enable us to live within our means. Admirably, Gov. Chris Gregoire publicly denounced tax increases when the economy soured. It was heartening news.
But public servants have a history of failure to treat budgets as they would their own pocketbooks. You might recall when state spending skyrocketed by an average of more than 17 percent per biennium – so voters passed Initiative 601. They obviously wanted spending limits, but the Legislature amended I-601 seemingly countless times. To make matters worse, a lawsuit was filed when government played what was described as a shell game to artificially manipulate spending limits.
Another challenge: Underfunding of government pensions. In addition, except for many big-business CEOs, public-sector pensions are too laissez-faire compared to the private sector – a time bomb set to go off.
Quality government behavior. Many government workers try to do a good job. But some employees overseeing business, e.g. Department of Revenue employees, do not understand their own regulations.
In a panic to increase revenue, they’ve forced businesses to waste time and resources to justify tax filings because the agency employees were unfamiliar with their own guidelines.
Agency employees could learn another lesson from the private sector. Companies succeed when they correct their mistakes and apologize to customers.
Create a healthy tax system. Start by listening to small business owners – review and correct the state’s business and occupation tax. Washington’s B&O tax is unfair. The tax is based on a business’ gross receipts instead of net profits. It’s a major reason why new companies fail to sustain their workforces and close down.
And why should companies carry the burden for more than 50 percent of state and local taxes? Washington is the second-highest in the nation for unemployment insurance taxes and the third-highest for workers’ compensation benefits.
Government must review its policies, procedures, taxes, fees and charges. At every juncture, governments should ask the question: “Is this productive for economic development?”
Outlaw predatory financial practices. Thousands of state residents have been victimized in financial services – from credit card companies to post-transaction marketing. Work with representatives in Congress to outlaw predatory behavior by credit card companies and debt collectors.
To his credit in 2009, Attorney General Rob McKenna requested lawmakers to pass a law that would stop the deceptive Internet marketing behavior of a Bellevue company, Intellius. But lawmakers failed to act.
Instill greater public confidence. Today’s public officials can learn lessons from President Franklin D. Roosevelt and his fireside chats on radio to reassure Americans. Businesses will start making investments in their businesses and hiring workers, if they have reasons to be confident.
After developing strategic plans, government leaders at all levels – the state, counties and cities – can be a positive influence. Like any good marketing campaign, they should tell the public what they’re going to do to improve the economic climate. Remind citizens as they enact new policies and procedures. Then, tell businesses about their economic accomplishments.
If governments get this done, Washington will become the leader.
From the Coach’s Corner, it’s helpful to be mindful of I call “The 20 Characteristics of a Healthy Economy.”
Here are my 20 healthy-economy characteristics:
- A big-picture consensus and strategic plan for economic development
- Action plan resulting in increased entrepreneurship – local businesses that hire more local workers
- Diverse industry base of employers
- Success at encouraging families and businesses to invest and locate in the community
- Family wage jobs
- Decreased need for social services
- Balance between responsible development and redevelopment without driving out residents or businesses
- Infrastructure and solutions, including diversity of land uses that are self-sufficient without relying on outside sources for repeat, large funding
- Growth that doesn’t damage the environment or use excessive space
- Accessibility and equity for residents in education, employment, housing and transportation
- Happy and healthy residents who have a strong pride in the community
- Festivals and celebrations
- Positive public image
- Enhanced shopping opportunities
- Anchor projects that encourage commercial, retail and related mixed uses
- Optimal tax revenue
- Continuous efforts for beautification, for improvement in quality roads and transportation
- Widespread charitable contributions for robust nonprofit organizations – vibrant civic and service clubs, churches and their respective organizations, and other groups.
- Open and creative community leadership that encourages and nurtures emerging leaders
- Ongoing review and fine-tuning of the strategic plan for economic development and creation of jobs
