Updated June 30, 2019-
Intrigue is mounting over whether the Democrat Party will continue to splinter before the 2020 Presidential Election.
As a result of tension within the party, the odds are greater now for a severe schism than during any election cycle since George McGovern’s anti-war movement took control of the party back in 1972.
Naturally, to a person, the Democrats are united in their raw hatred of President Trump. But otherwise, they’re divided.
Liberal Democrats ruled the first round of debates in June. The moderates didn’t even seem to have a voice. For example, former Vice President Joe Biden was treated with blatant disrespect regarding his age and his alleged racism, which must seem absurd to knowledgeable voters.
Republican turmoil
It’s a reminder of the turmoil among Republicans in 2016.
Thanks to political intrigue and shenanigans by some political campaigns and the so-called Republican establishment, it was widely anticipated the Republican Party would suffer defeat in the 2016 Presidential Election.
Obviously, it didn’t happen but it was certainly within the realm of responsibility according to a University of Georgia (UGA) study, which is entitled “National Party Division and Divisive State Primaries in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1948-2012.”
“History shows that when one party is divided and the other party is united, the divided party almost always loses the presidential election,” said Paul-Henri Gurian, a UGA associate professor of political science. (UGA researchers also included Audrey Haynes, Nathan Burroughs, Lonna Atkeson and Damon Cann.)
“Consider, for example, the elections from 1964 through 1984; in each case the divided party lost,” he added.
The Republican Party had been largely divided, in particular, by dirty tricks by the campaign of Sen. Ted Cruz and the anti-Donald Trump movement by the Republican establishment.
The tactics supported by many Republican insiders, which followed the controversial statements by the front-running business mogul Trump, were widely publicized.
Professor Gurian
The research reveals political discord in a party during the primaries and general election will indicate the margin by which the party loses.
The study measures party division during the primaries and indicates how much more the divided party will lose in the general election.
Researchers errantly anticipated Hillary’s victory
In the Nov. 2016 election, the professor believed the Republican Party’s eventual nominee might lose more than 3 percent of the national vote. Otherwise, a united Republican Party would not suffer at the polls.
Conflict-ridden state primaries can cause a 1 to 2 percent decrease in general elections.
An example:
In the 2016 Georgia primary, Hillary Clinton garnered 71 percent of the Democrat votes. Meantime, Donald Trump only received 39 percent of the Republican votes.
The researchers’ model indicated Mr. Trump was likely to lose nearly 1 percent of the general-election Georgia vote as a result of the divisiveness.
Indeed, in the general election, Mr. Trump won Georgia by 5.1 percent, which was a lower periphery compared to Mitt Romney’s 7.82 percent in 2012, and John McCain’s 5.20 percent in 2008.
“Political language … is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.”
– George Orwell
Worse nationwide, the divided party can lose as much as 3 percent or more if the trends continued.
“In close elections, such as 2000, 2004 and 2012, 4-5 percent could change the outcome in terms of which party wins the presidency,” explained Professor Gurian.
Obviously, the research didn’t anticipate the impact of Mr. Trump’s admittedly hard-nosed, often crude, but innate and misunderstood qualities including his marketing acumen. Not to be gauche, but nearly 10 months before the 2016 Election, on Jan. 17 and updated on Feb. 3, I predicted Mr. Trump would win:
“Donald Trump holds the only ticket to success. He will overcome the disingenuous tactics of Mr. Cruz and will win the 2016 Presidential Election. His capacity for hard work, knowledge of economic principles from his business success and failures, and his marketing acumen are superior to anyone else. Here’s why. (Despite Cruz’s Despicable Tactics – Why Trump Will Win)
Later, we would learn about the decisiveness and impact of Mr. Trump’s relentless campaigning — four or five speeches daily including key states — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — Mrs. Clinton inexplicably took for granted and failed to campaign.
You know the Electoral College results: Mr. Trump 306; Mrs. Clinton 232.
Economic success
Now, Mr. Trump’s economic success is undeniable as evidenced by the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). Economic growth greatly accelerated after he took office. So far, the nation’s GDP is 45 percent higher than it was over the same time span – the last 27 months under the Obama Administration.
Overall, the unemployment rate is the lowest it’s been in 50 years. In May, black unemployment dropped to an historically low 5.9 percent, and the women’s unemployment rate plummeted to its lowest rate in 65 years.
Each quarter, wages have averaged more than a 3-percent increase after being stagnant for at least a decade. Many Americans are now accumulating wealth via their retirement plans — the skyrocketing stock market is propelling 401(K) plans to sky-high levels.
Additionally, China has been challenged over its theft of intellectual property from American tech companies and manipulation of its monetary system en route to its $500-million trade imbalance that’s harming the U.S. economy.
Perhaps miraculously, if you don’t understand President Trump’s bold acumen for strategy and negotiations, trade talks with China were reignited at the 2019 G20 summit. No other president has been this successful.
Although ridiculed by business groups, Democrats and unenlightened Republicans, President Trump is not the first public official to effectively protect American interests with tariffs.
Perhaps well-intentioned, they simply don’t know history and the precedents for tariffs. Talk of imposing trade tariffs as a foreign and economic-policy tool began with an Alexander Hamilton proposal back in 1791, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Remaining economic challenge
The economic achievements are America’s best weapons to alleviate the troubling national debt as shown by the U.S. Debt Clock:
Calculating debt…
The national debt exploded by $14 trillion under Presidents George Bush and Barack Obama to more than $19 trillion. The average debt for each American is more than $67,000. So, at $389 billion in 2019, the interest on the debt continues to grow by the second. That’s an ominous portend for the future if it’s allowed to continue.
Congressional spending and wasteful pork earmarks by both Democrats and Republicans are a huge hindrance to solving the issue.
In foreign-policy developments — in addition to efforts to solve the trade dispute with China — tensions have eased significantly with North Korea. It has stopping sending missiles over Japan, conducting nuclear tests and threatening America and the rest of the world.
As a result of Mr. Trump’s uncoventional foreign policy via Twitter this week, he made history as the first president ever to cross the DMZ into North Korea. He had a televised cordial meeting with dictator Kim Jong Un, and now talks will again be underway to denuclearize North Korea. (No surprise, Democrat candidates for president roundly condemned the diplomatic gesture. Seriously?)
As a result of President Trump’s tariff threat, Mexico is finally working with the U.S. on illegal immigration by sending 15,000 National Guard troops to its borders. This will help ease the burden for American taxpayers who pay $200 billion annually in illegal immigration costs. And no worries, Mexico won’t make good on its threat to slap tariffs on avocados and other products.
Conclusion
The bottom-line: Time will tell whether Professor Gurian’s research proves to be true for the Democrats in the 2020 campaign. But it appears it won’t matter. President Trump’s economic and foreign-policy successes put him in an even stronger position to win a second term.
From the Coach’s Corner, here are related public-policy articles:
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Academic Study: Rich Pay More than Their Share in Taxes — The 2016 study by the National Center for Policy Analysis reveals the current tax code is highly progressive. It’s entitled, “U.S. Inequality, Fiscal Progressivity, and Work Disincentives: An Intragenerational Accounting.”
Why a 1960s’ Beatles Protest Song is Still Relevant — Have you ever wondered why British groups like The Rolling Stones, The Who and The Beatles spent so much time touring abroad? To sell music for sure, but there’s another reason: Abusive taxes.
Q&A with Dr. Ben Carson – The Full Meal Deal with Solutions — Sept. 13, 2013 – Naturally, Dr. Ben Carson is known as a uniquely soft-spoken retired neurosurgeon. His voluminous accomplishments include his pioneering in the separation of conjoined twins at the head. But, of course, there’s more. A lot more. With his gentle, low-key demeanor, he’s also known for his powerful insights on the issues facing the U.S. and the world.
Memorial Day: What Would Abraham Lincoln Say Today? – Memorial Day is to remember the armed forces’ men and women who died to protect our freedoms. Some reflection on what Abraham Lincoln would say today.
“Political language … is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.”
– George Orwell
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